2014 Cooperstown Prospects

Who is going in in 2014?

BY: Dominic Ciolli

            Football is undoubtedly the most popular sport in the United States right now.  NCAA football coaches get paid more than college presidents.  The NFL has not played a game since February 3rd, yet it still dominates ESPN despite the fact that the NBA Finals are in full swing and the MLB is beginning a tense summer.  Football may be the most popular sport, but baseball is the most hallowed.  When Josh Gordon, Justin Blackmon, Santonio Holmes, and thirty-three other NFL players were suspended over the last three years for using banned substances the never-ending din of commentators bemoaned the stupidity of the players rather than mourn the death of football’s sanctity.  When the Biogenesis scandal in the MLB broke, however, it was as though baseball would never be the same again.

            This difference between the big-three sports can be felt in the atmosphere one feels at each league’s respective hall of fame.  The bottom of the barrel is the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame in Springfield, Massachusetts.  The Basketball Hall of Fame just feels…average.  There is nothing inherently wrong with it (except the fact that there is a restaurant attached to it), it is just not exceptional.  A fine tribute to the sport, but not much more.  Middle of the pack is the Professional Football Hall of Fame in Canton, Ohio.  The Football Hall of Fame is an awesome experience.  The building is a real museum to the sport.  The Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, New York, however, is something different.   If the Basketball Hall of Fame feels like a tribute to basketball and the Football Hall of Fame feels like a museum of football, than Cooperstown is nothing short of a cathedral to baseball.  This perception is bolstered by the plaque room, which literally looks like a church.

            Another difference between the hall of fames is the membership.  All due respect to basketball, but I’m not going to talk about the Basketball Hall of Fame anymore.  This is just between Canton and Cooperstown now.  The Football Hall of Fame has had a class every year since it began in 1963—the smallest of which was three, in 1973 and the largest was the charter class of seventeen—resulting in 273 members.  With forty-nine classes, that averages out to just under six inductees every year.  The Baseball Hall of Fame, on the other hand, has had sixty-seven classes over the past seventy-seven years—the smallest of which was obviously zero, which has happened ten times, most recently this year, while the largest was the charter class of five—resulting in 300 members.  That evens out to just under four inductees every year.  The Baseball Hall of Fame is much more exclusive than its football counter-part, which makes this upcoming year especially remarkable. 

            To gain induction into the Hall a player must be retired for at least five years and gain at least 75% of the vote.  If at any point the player receives less than 5% of the vote, they are removed from the ballot forever.  They have fifteen years to gain entrance before losing their chance until they become eligible for consideration by the Veterans Committee.  The last time that the Cooperstown welcomed more than two players was 1999 when Nolan Ryan, George Brett, and Robin Yount were inducted.  The Class of 2014 has a chance to change all that.

            Several prominent players are returning on the ballot, such as Astros’ long-time second basemen Craig Biggio.  This will be Biggio’s second year on the ballot (he received 68% of the vote last year) and he is an inevitable hall of famer.  Biggio has 3060 career hits, putting him in the exclusive 3000 hit club.  Only two eligible players with 3000 hits are not in the Hall—Pete Rose, due to his gambling-related lifetime ban, and Rafael Palmerio, due to his alleged steroid usage.  Biggio has no such pockmarks on his record, guaranteeing him entrance into Cooperstown.  When, however, is the question.  The seven point jump from 68% to 75% is fairly common, making it possible he enters in 2014.

            Jeff Bagwell and Mike Piazza are two more returning members, on their fourth and second year, respectively.  The two have similar stats (Bagwell: 2314 hits, 449 home runs, .297 lifetime batting average; Piazza: 2127 hits, 427 home runs, .308 lifetime average) and Piazza is considered one of the greatest hitting catchers in baseball history.  Both these players have been accused of using steroids or other performance-enhancing drugs, however, hurting their chances.  Despite this, they have gained more votes than the more prominent drug users returning on the ballot.

            Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, and Rafael Palmerio are all on the ballot as well.  Clemens has insane stats.  354 wins (9^th all-time, 2^nd of all pictures since 1966), 4672 strikeouts (3^rd all-time), seven Cy Young awards and one MVP award as well as an eleven time All-Star.  Bonds has similarly absurd numbers.  762 home runs (1^st all-time), 2935 hits, a lifetime batting average of .298, the most walks drawn of all-time, seven MVP awards (including a ridiculous four straight from 2001 to 2004) and fourteen All-Star Game appearances.  McGwire only hit .263 lifetime but did smash 583 home runs over his career.  Sosa hit .273, gathered 2408 hits and 609 home runs.  Palmerio hit .288 over his career, had 3020 hits, and 569 home runs.  Based on the numbers alone these five would all get over 95% of the vote.  But alas, each and every one of them has deep and permanent steroid stains, much more dire and confirmed than those of Bagwell and Piazza.  Palmerio and Sosa are dangerously close to falling off the ballot, McGwire is in his eighth year and has only mustered 19% of the vote (a very bad sign), while Bonds and Clemens are both entering their second year with 37% of vote.  There is plenty of room to grow from that position, but it will be at least three or four years before they get within striking distance of the 75% threshold. 

            Out of the returning players, only Biggio has a chance of getting elected in the upcoming vote.  This year’s newcomers, however, are poised to make a splash on the voting.  The three biggest new names are Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and Frank Thomas.  Maddux and Glavine are both members of the 300-win club with 355 and 305, respectively.  (Maddux is 8^th all-time and 1^st among all pitchers since 1965).  Additionally, Maddux won four consecutive Cy Young Awards from 1992 to 1995 and a remarkable eighteen Gold Gloves while Glavine won teo Cy Young Awards.  Both have completely unblemished reputations and were in fact teammates for the dominant Atlanta Braves team of the 1990s.  Maddux is a first-ballot hall of famer without a doubt; it’s likely that he’ll earn at least 94% of the vote.  Glavine certainly has the potential to be a first-ballot entry, but the fact that Don Sutton, Phil Niekro, and Gaylord Perry all have more wins than Glavine yet had to wait a few years before entering Cooperstown does not bode well for him.  Thomas has amazing stats as well.  .301 lifetime average, 2468 hits, and 521 home runs, and he won two straight (1993 and 1994) MVP Awards, all while maintaining a great reputation as a clean player and generally as a great man.  Additionally, of the twenty-five members of the 500-Home Run club, only Mel Ott, Ted Williams, Jimmie Foxx, Manny Ramirez, Willie Mays, Babe Ruth, and Hank Aaron have a higher lifetime batting average.  Thomas is a no-doubt first-ballot hall of famer. 

            Other prominent names making their ballot debuts this year are Mike Mussina (270-153, 3.68 ERA), Kenny Rogers (219-156, 4.27 ERA), Jeff Kent (377 HR, 2461 H, .290 BA), Luis Gonzalez (354 HR, 2591 H, .283 BA), Moises Alou (332 HR, 2134, .303 BA), and Ray Durham (192 HR, 2054 H, .277 BA).  If any of these players get into Cooperstown it will not be for at least twelve years.  Mussina and Rogers are Jack Morris and Tommy John 2.0.  Kent’s stats are a knock-off of Edgar Martinez (who is in his 5^th year of hopelessness) while Gonzalez and Alou’s stats are a paler form of Larry Walker’s (in his 4^th year of purgatory).  Durham’s stats are worse than Alan Trammell’s in both offense and defense (Durham played 2B while Trammell was a SS, but the stats translate similarly). 

            Maddux and Thomas are in, no question.  Both will get at least 85%, but Maddux will probably be the first player since Ripken in 2007 to pass the 95% threshold.  Biggio has a good chance to get in as well (Phil Niekro and Yogi Berra, the last two top-vote getters in years with no inductees, both made it the next year).  Glavine could sneak in due to the fact that he got 305 wins in the hitter-loaded Steroid Era.  I don’t know who the third will be, but three players will enter Cooperstown in 2014.